Forecasting the 2017/2018 seasonal influenza epidemic in England using multiple dynamic transmission models: a case study.
Paul J BirrellXu-Sheng ZhangAlice CorbellaEdwin van LeeuwenNikolaos PanagiotopoulosKatja HoschlerAlex J ElliotMaryia McGeeSimon de LusignanAnne M PresanisMarc BaguelinMaria ZambonAndré CharlettRichard G PebodyDaniela De AngelisPublished in: BMC public health (2020)
This exercise successfully applied a range of pandemic models to seasonal influenza. Forecasting early in the season remains challenging but represents a crucially important activity to inform planning. Improved knowledge of pre-existing levels of immunity would be valuable.