Detection of influenza epidemics using hidden Markov and Serfling approaches.

Both modified Serfling and HMM were acceptable models in determining the epidemic points for the detection of weekly SARI. The AHMM had better fitness, higher detection power and more accurate detection of the incidence of epidemics than Serfling model and high sensitivity and specificity. In addition to AHMM, Serfling models with 30% and 35% modification can be used to detect epidemics due to approximately the same accuracy but the simplicity of the calculations.