Prediction of Mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in a statewide health network.

Question: Can we predict the likelihood of hospital discharge as well as mortality from data obtained in the first 48 hours from admission in hospitalized COVID-19 patients?Findings: Models based on extensive phenotyping mined directly from electronic medical records followed by variable selection, accounted for the competing events of hospital death versus discharge, predicted both death and discharge with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of >0.80.Meaning: Hospital discharge and mortality can be forecasted with high accuracy based on just 8-10 variables, and the probability of hospital discharge increased over the course of the pandemic.