A study of the possible factors affecting COVID-19 spread, severity and mortality and the effect of social distancing on these factors: Machine learning forecasting model.

From the experimental results, we confirm that COVID-19 has a very low spread in the African countries with all the four variables (average young age, hot weather, BCG vaccine and malaria treatment); a very high spread in European countries and the USA with no variable (old people, cold weather, no BCG vaccine and no malaria). The effect of the variables could be on the spread or the severity to the extent that the infected subject might not have symptoms or the case is mild and can be missed as a confirmed-case. Social distancing decreases the effect of these factors.