Nitrogen-fixing trees could exacerbate climate change under elevated nitrogen deposition.

Biological nitrogen fixation can fuel CO2 sequestration by forests but can also stimulate soil emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas. Here we use a theoretical model to suggest that symbiotic nitrogen-fixing trees could either mitigate (CO2 sequestration outweighs soil N2O emissions) or exacerbate (vice versa) climate change relative to non-fixing trees, depending on their nitrogen fixation strategy (the degree to which they regulate nitrogen fixation to balance nitrogen supply and demand) and on nitrogen deposition. The model posits that nitrogen-fixing trees could exacerbate climate change globally relative to non-fixing trees by the radiative equivalent of 0.77 Pg C yr-1 under nitrogen deposition rates projected for 2030. This value is highly uncertain, but its magnitude suggests that this subject requires further study and that improving the representation of biological nitrogen fixation in climate models could substantially decrease estimates of the extent to which forests will mitigate climate change.