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Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 prevention measures in Austrian schools using agent-based simulations and cluster tracing data.

Jana LasserJohannes SorgerLukas RichterStefan ThurnerDaniela SchmidPeter Klimek
Published in: Nature communications (2022)
We aim to identify those measures that effectively control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Austrian schools. Using cluster tracing data we calibrate an agent-based epidemiological model and consider situations where the B1.617.2 (delta) virus strain is dominant and parts of the population are vaccinated to quantify the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as room ventilation, reduction of class size, wearing of masks during lessons, vaccinations, and school entry testing by SARS-CoV2-antigen tests. In the data we find that 40% of all clusters involved no more than two cases, and 3% of the clusters only had more than 20 cases. The model shows that combinations of NPIs together with vaccinations are necessary to allow for a controlled opening of schools under sustained community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant. For plausible vaccination rates, primary (secondary) schools require a combination of at least two (three) of the above NPIs.
Keyphrases
  • sars cov
  • respiratory syndrome coronavirus
  • electronic health record
  • physical activity
  • mental health
  • healthcare
  • molecular dynamics
  • data analysis
  • deep learning
  • artificial intelligence
  • respiratory failure