Using Group Model Building to Capture the Complex Dynamics of Scaling Up District-Level Surgery in Arusha Region, Tanzania.

This study provides a systems view on the scaling up of surgery from a district level perspective. Its results enable a critical appraisal of the feasibility of implementing the NSOAP. Our results suggest that policy-makers should be wary of 'quick fixes' that have short term gains only. Long term policy that considers the complex dynamics of surgical systems and that allows for periodic evaluation and adaption is needed to scale up surgery in a sustainable manner.