Warming enhances dominance of vascular plants over cryptogams across northern wetlands.

Climate warming causes profound effects on structure and function of wetland ecosystem, thus affecting regional and global hydrological cycles and carbon budgets. However, how wetland plants respond to warming is still poorly understood. Here, we synthesized observations from 273 independent sites to explore responses of northern wetland plants to warming. Our results show that warming enhances biomass accumulation for vascular plants including shrubs and graminoids, whereas it reduces biomass accumulation for cryptogams including moss and lichen. This divergent response of vascular plants and cryptogams is particularly pronounced in the high latitudes where permafrost prevails. As warming continues, this divergent response is amplified, however, the reduction in cryptogams is more drastic. Warming leads to declined surface soil moisture and lowered water table, thereby shifting wetlands from a wet system dominated by cryptogams to a drier system with increased cover of vascular plants. Under a high-emission scenario of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5), a 4.7-5.1°C mean global temperature rise will cause more than fivefold loss of cryptogams compared with current climate. As cryptogams are largely concentrated at northern high latitudes, where warming will likely be greater than the projected global mean, modification in wetland plant composition and major reduction in cryptogams are expected to occur even much earlier than 2100.