Predictors of locomotive syndrome in community-living people: A prospective five-year longitudinal study.

Objectives: Locomotive syndrome (LS) in middle-aged and elderly people has a high risk of a need for nursing care. The goal of the study was to examine predictors of LS in a prospective longitudinal study. Methods: The subjects were 205 people (87 males, 118 females) aged >40 years who underwent physical examinations and completed health questionnaires in health checkups in the Yakumo study in 2011 and 2016. LS was defined as ≥16 on the 25-Question Geriatric Locomotive Function Scale (GLFS-25). Subjects with LS in 2011 were excluded. Associations of all variables with the GLFS-25 score were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for each physical measurement test was constructed to determine the best threshold value. Results: The subjects were divided into LS (n = 21) and non-LS (n = 184) groups, based on the 2016 checkup. In multivariate analysis, GLFS-25 (odds ratio [OR] = 1.437; p < 0.01), one-leg standing time (OR= 1.043, p < 0.05), and back muscle strength (OR =0.961, p <0.05) were significant predictors of LS. ROC analyses gave GLFS-25 scores of 6.2 and 6.8, one-leg standing times of 26.8 and 23.3 s, and back muscle strengths of 75.2 and 49.5 kg as thresholds for prediction of future LS in males and females, respectively. Conclusions: GLFS-25 score, one-leg standing time, and back muscle strength were identified as significant risk factors for LS in community-dwelling people, and threshold values were determined for these factors in a longitudinal study. For elderly people, these indicators could be predictors of locomotive syndrome, and may have validity for assessment of improvement of physical abilities through muscle training and body balance training.