Temperature impacts on cotton yield superposed by effects on plant growth and verticillium wilt infection in China.

China produces and consumes the largest amount of cotton, playing a critical role in the world's fiber and textile industries. Theoretically, an increase in temperature poses a complex set of impacts on both cotton and pathogen diseases. However, empirical evidence regarding the overall effect on regional cotton yield in China is currently lacking. In this study, we employ county-level cotton statistics and degree-day indices (n = 30,502) to demonstrate a temperature effect on cotton yield, influenced by both direct temperature effects and indirect effects on verticillium wilt infection in China. Our findings indicate that temperatures between the base growing temperature (15 °C) and the optimal infection threshold for cotton wilt disease (25 °C) reduce cotton yield. However, beyond this threshold, when disease infection is significantly limited, higher temperatures become beneficial. Temperatures exceeding 32 °C causes heat stress, which dominates and drives a decline in yield. Furthermore, we provide a risk assessment of warming on cotton in future climate scenarios. Our model projections reveal an overall decrease in cotton yield ranging from 6.2 to 30.6%, accompanied by amplified heat stress (resulting in a yield decrease of 11.6 to 48.7%) but a reduced threat of verticillium wilt (yield increase of 8.2 to 23.6%) in future. Particularly, the Northwest Region, currently responsible for 80% of cotton production, is expected to be particularly vulnerable. This study emphasizes the importance of investing in long-term technological advancements such as cotton heat-tolerance breeding and redistributing cotton growing areas.