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The COVID-19 basic reproductive ratio using SEIR model for the Middle East countries and some other countries for two stages of the disease.

Marwan Al-Raeei
Published in: Bulletin of the National Research Centre (2021)
We find that the values of the basic reproductive ratio of the new coronavirus disease based on the used model in the Middle East countries start from 1.5583 to 3.0395 in the first stage and from 1.0001 to 4.5757. Besides, we find that the problem of the new coronavirus disease in Lebanon and in the Syrian Arab Republic is not good at all in the recent stage based on the values of the basic reproductive ratio comparing with other Middle East countries. Also, we find that the value of the basic reproductive ratio for the second stage is near one; however, if we apply the method for the following stages, we find that the values return to be larger because lots of people in that stage and after did not follow the governmental procedures for stopping the spreading of the disease.
Keyphrases
  • coronavirus disease
  • respiratory syndrome coronavirus
  • sars cov