Time-trend analysis (2008-2018) of overweight prevalence among low-income infant and preschool children.

This study aimed to analyze the overweight (OW) prevalence trends from 2008 to 2018 among under-five-year-old children assisted by the conditional cash transfer program entitled Programa Bolsa Família (PBF). The panel was based on the Food and Nutritional Surveillance System (SISVAN) (n=30,574,118) nutritional status reports. Age- (infants and preschoolers) and region-specific joinpoint regression models were used to analyze OW's prevalence temporal changes. Besides, the coverage of SISVAN for PBF and national representativity were calculated according to census projection. In the decade analyzed, OW in infants decreased from 11.9% (11.8; 12.0 95%CI) to 8.5% (8.4; 8.6 95%CI) (-3.6%/year [-5.1; -2.0 95%CI]); for preschool children, the prevalence of OW increased by 3.1%/year (2.0; 4.2 95%CI) until 2015, followed by a decrease until 2018 (-6.4%/year [-10.1; -2.6 95%CI]). In both age groups, the North region had the lowest prevalence in all time-series, and the Northeast had the worst performance in managing childhood obesity. The SISVAN's coverage in the PBF was high, and the data representativity varied between 13.9% (South) and 42.2% (Northeast). Although the prevalence was higher than expected, after 2014, it was detected a linear reduction in OW in infants and a deceleration in the growth rate in preschoolers.