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The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management.

Heidi KreibichAnne F Van LoonKai SchröterPhilip J WardMaurizio MazzoleniNivedita SairamGuta Wakbulcho AbeshuSvetlana AgafonovaAmir AghaKouchakHafzullah AksoyCamila Alvarez-GarretonBlanca AznarLaila BalkhiMarlies H BarendrechtSylvain BiancamariaLiduin Bos-BurgeringChristopher BradleyYus BudiyonoWouter BuytaertLucinda CapewellHayley CarlsonYonca CavusAnaïs CouasnonGemma CoxonIoannis DaliakopoulosMarleen C de RuiterClaire DelusMathilde ErfurtGiuseppe EspositoDidier FrançoisFrédéric FrappartJim FreerNatalia FrolovaAnimesh K GainManolis G GrillakisJordi Oriol GrimaDiego A GuzmánLaurie S HuningMonica IonitaMaxim KharlamovDao Nguyen KhoiNatalie KieboomMaria KireevaAristeidis G KoutroulisWaldo Lavado-CasimiroHong-Yi LiMaría Carmen LLasatDavid MacdonaldJohanna MårdHannah Mathew-RichardsAndrew McKenzieAlfonso MejiaEduardo Mario MendiondoMarjolein MensShifteh MobiniGuilherme Samprogna MohorViorica NagavciucThanh Ngo-DucThi Thao Nguyen HuynhPham Thi Thao NhiOlga PetrucciHong Quan NguyenPere Quintana-SeguíSaman RazaviElena RidolfiJannik RiegelMd Shibly SadikElisa SavelliAlexey SazonovSanjib SharmaJohanna SörensenFelipe Augusto Arguello SouzaKerstin StahlMax SteinhausenMichael StoelzleWiwiana SzalińskaQiuhong TangFuqiang TianTamara TokarczykCarolina TovarThi Van Thu TranMarjolein H J Van HuijgevoortMichelle T H van VlietSergiy VorogushynThorsten WagenerYueling WangDoris E WendtElliot WickhamLong YangMauricio Zambrano-BigiariniGünter BlöschlGiuliano Di Baldassarre
Published in: Nature (2022)
Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally 1,2 , yet their impacts are still increasing 3 . An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data 4,5 . On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change 3 .
Keyphrases
  • climate change
  • machine learning