Influence of model assumptions about HIV disease progression after initiating or stopping treatment on estimates of infections and deaths averted by scaling up antiretroviral therapy.

Different disease progression assumptions on and post-ART interruption did not affect the fraction of HIV infections averted with expanded ART, unless ART dropouts only re-initiated ART at low CD4 counts. Different disease progression assumptions had a larger influence on the fraction of HIV-related deaths averted with expanded ART.