Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.
Henrique Miguel PereiraInês S MartinsIsabel M D RosaHyeJin KimPaul LeadleyAlexander PoppDetlef P van VuurenGeorge C HurttLuise QuossAlmut ArnethDaniele BaiseroMichel BakkenesRebecca Chaplin-KramerLouise ChiniMoreno Di MarcoSimon FerrierShinichiro FujimoriCarlos A GuerraMichael B J HarfootThomas D HarwoodTomoko HasegawaVanessa HaverdPetr HavlíkStefanie HellwegJelle P HilbersSamantha L L HillAkiko HirataAndrew J HoskinsFlorian HumpenöderJan H JanseWalter JetzJustin A JohnsonAndreas KrauseDavid LeclereTetsuya MatsuiJohan R MeijerCory MerowMichael ObersteinerHaruka OhashiAdriana De PalmaBenjamin PoulterAndy PurvisBenjamin QuesadaCarlo RondininiAafke M SchipperJosef SetteleRichard P SharpElke StehfestBernardo B N StrassburgKiyoshi TakahashiMatthew V TallutoWilfried ThuillerNicolas TiteuxPiero ViscontiChristopher WareFlorian WolfRob AlkemadePublished in: Science (New York, N.Y.) (2024)
Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.