Niche dynamics suggest ecological factors influencing migration in an insectivorous owl.

Seasonal migration is a widespread phenomenon undertaken by myriad organisms, including birds. Competing hypotheses about ultimate drivers of seasonal migration in birds contrast relative resource abundances at high latitudes ("southern home hypothesis") against avoidance of winter resource scarcity ("dispersal-migration hypothesis"). However, direct tests of these competing hypotheses have been rare and to date limited to historical biogeographic reconstructions. Here we derive novel predictions about the dynamics of individual niches from each hypothesis and provide a framework for evaluating support for these competing hypotheses using contemporary environmental and behavioral data. Using flammulated owls (Psiloscops flammeolus) as a model, we characterized year-round occupied niche dynamics using high-resolution global positioning system tracking and remote-sensed environmental data. We also compared occupied niche dynamics to counterfactual niches using simulated alternative nonmigratory strategies. Owl occupied mean niche was conserved among seasons, whereas niche variance was generally higher during migratory periods. Simulated year-round residents in Mexico would have experienced putatively more productive niches than migrants. These findings provide ecological support for the "dispersal-migration" hypothesis in which winter resource scarcity is the primary driver of migration rather than summer resource abundances.