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Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon.

Lilian Patrícia SalesOlívia Viana NevesPaulo De MarcoRafael Loyola
Published in: PloS one (2017)
From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species.
Keyphrases
  • climate change
  • human health
  • genetic diversity
  • risk assessment