Large increase in yield is predicted by wheat ideotypes for Europe under future climate.

A substantial increase in food production is needed for future global food security. Raising upper limits in crop yield potential is the key for increasing food production under future climates. Europe is the largest wheat producer delivering about 35% wheat globally, but its genetic yield potential under future climate is yet unknown. Using the Sirius wheat model, we estimated genetic yield potential of wheat in Europe under 2050-climate (HadGEM2, RCP8.5) by designing in silico wheat ideotypes, based on state-of-the-art knowledge in crop physiology and availability of genetic variation in wheat germplasm. Wheat ideotypes were optimised for yield in rainfed condition by using an evolutionary algorithm with self-adaptation and utilizing the full parameter ranges in a multidimensional space of cultivar traits. To evaluate importance of heat and drought stresses around flowering, a critical stage in wheat development, sensitive and tolerant ideotypes were designed. Grain yields of wheat ideotypes under 2050-climate ranged from 9-17 t/ha across major wheat growing regions in Europe. Yield potential of wheat ideotypes were highest in north-western Europe, followed by central-western and central-eastern Europe, whereas yield was lowest in north-eastern and south-western Europe. Both ideotypes showed a substantially greater yield of 66%-89% compared to current local cultivars under optimal managements. Advantages of a tolerant ideotype over sensitive were region specific reaching up to 44% greater yields for tolerant ideotypes in south-western Europe. Optimal canopy structure, phenology and root water uptake, and tolerance to heat and drought stresses around flowering were identified as key traits for improvements to achieve maximum genetic yield potentials. Ideotype design is a powerful methodology with the potential to accelerate crop improvement, genetic adaptation and breeding by providing selection targets and their optimal combination for increased yield under global climate change.