Validation of a Visual-Based Analytics Tool for Outcome Prediction in Polytrauma Patients (WATSON Trauma Pathway Explorer) and Comparison with the Predictive Values of TRISS.

Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for predictive quality, calibration plots for graphical goodness of fit, Brier score for overall performance of WATSON and TRISS. Results: Between 2018 and 2019, 107 patients were included (33 female, 74 male; mean age 48.3 ± 19.7; mean temperature 35.9 ± 1.3; median ISS 30, IQR 23-36). The area under the curve (AUC) is 0.77 (95% CI 0.68-0.85) for SIRS and 0.71 (95% CI 0.58-0.83) for sepsis. WATSON and TRISS showed similar AUCs to predict early death (AUC 0.90, 95% CI 0.79-0.99 vs. AUC 0.88, 95% CI 0.77-0.97; p = 0.75). The goodness of fit of WATSON (X2 = 8.19, Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.42) was superior to that of TRISS (X2 = 31.93, Hosmer-Lemeshow p < 0.05), as was the overall performance based on Brier score (0.06 vs. 0.11 points). Discussion: The validation supports previous reports in terms of feasibility of the WATSON Trauma Pathway Explorer and emphasises its relevance to predict SIRS, sepsis, and early death when compared with the TRISS method.