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Illness-death model: statistical perspective and differential equations.

Ralph BrinksAnnika Hoyer
Published in: Lifetime data analysis (2018)
The aim of this work is to relate the theory of stochastic processes with the differential equations associated with multistate (compartment) models. We show that the Kolmogorov Forward Differential Equations can be used to derive a relation between the prevalence and the transition rates in the illness-death model. Then, we prove mathematical well-definedness and epidemiological meaningfulness of the prevalence of the disease. As an application, we derive the incidence of diabetes from a series of cross-sections.
Keyphrases
  • risk factors
  • cardiovascular disease
  • metabolic syndrome
  • glycemic control
  • insulin resistance