Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data.

For the first time in Germany, we provide estimates for the incidence, prevalence, and number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes for the whole German population between 2010 and 2040. The relative increase of the people with type 1 diabetes ranges from 1% to 32% in 2040 compared with 2010. The projected results are mainly influenced by temporal trends in the incidence. Ignoring these trends, that is, applying a constant prevalence to population projections, probably underestimates future chronic disease numbers.