Sampling efficiency of the counting method for permeability calculations estimated with the inhomogeneous solubility-diffusion model.

Permeability is a key property in various fields such as membrane technology for chemical separation and transport of substances through cell membranes. At the molecular scale, the counting method uses the number of membrane crossings in a conventional unbiased molecular dynamics simulation to predict the permeability. This contribution investigates under which conditions the counting method has insufficient statistics. An equation is derived for a compartmental model based on the inhomogeneous solubility-diffusion (Smoluchowski) model, giving insight into how the flux correlates with the solubility of permeants. This equation shows that a membrane crossing is a rare event not only when the membrane forms a large free energy barrier but also when the membrane forms a deep free energy well that traps permeants. Such a permeant trap has a high permeability; yet, the counting method suffers from poor statistics. To illustrate this, coarse-grained MD was run for 16 systems of dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine bilayer membranes with different permeant types. The composition rule for permeability is shown to also hold for fluxes, and it is highlighted that the considered thickness of the membrane causes uncertainty in the permeability calculation of highly permeable membranes. In conclusion, a high permeability in itself is not an effective indicator of the sampling efficiency of the counting method, and caution should be taken for permeants whose solubility varies greatly over the simulation box. A practical consequence relevant in, e.g., drug design is that a drug with high membrane permeability might get trapped by membranes thus reducing its efficacy.