Does having siblings really protect against childhood atopic diseases? A total population and within-family analysis.

The association between having older siblings and decreased risk for atopic symptoms is well-established. This has been interpreted as evidence for the microbiota hypothesis, i.e. that increased early-childhood microbial exposure caused by siblings protects from immune hypersensitivities. However, possible confounders of the association have received little attention. We used register data on Finnish cohorts born in 1995-2004 (N = 559,077) to assess medication purchases for atopic diseases: antihistamines, eczema medication, asthma medication and Epinephrine. We modelled the probability of atopic medication purchases at ages 0-15 by birth order controlling for important observed confounders and all unobserved genetic and environmental characteristics shared by siblings in a within-family fixed effects model. We further studied medication purchases among first-borns according to the age difference with younger siblings to assess whether having younger siblings in early childhood is beneficial. Having older siblings was associated with a lower probability of atopic medication purchases. Compared to first-borns, the probability was 10-20% lower among second-borns, 20-40% lower among third-borns, and 30-70% lower among subsequent children, depending on medication type. Confounding accounted for up to 75% of these differences, particularly for asthma and eczema medication, but significant differences by birth order remained across all medication types. Among first-borns, a smaller age difference with younger siblings was related to a lower likelihood of atopic medication use. Our results, based on designs that account for unobserved confounding, show that exposure to siblings in early childhood, protects from atopic diseases, and thus strongly support the microbiota hypothesis.