Surface Deformation Analysis of the Wider Zagreb Area (Croatia) with Focus on the Kašina Fault, Investigated with Small Baseline InSAR Observations.

The wider Zagreb area is considered one of the few seismically active areas in the Republic of Croatia. During the period 1880-1906, moderate to strong seismic activity with three earthquakes magnitude M L ≥ 6 occurred on the NW-SE striking Kašina Fault and since then, the area has not experienced earthquakes exceeding magnitude M L = 5 . In order to estimate the ongoing interseismic strain accumulation along the fault, we analyze Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array L-band SAR (PALSAR) and Environmental Satellite (Envisat)-Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) datasets acquired over the period 2007-2010 and 2002-2010, respectively. The data were analyzed using small baseline interferometry (SBI) technique and indicate very slow surface deformations in the area, within ±3.5 mm/year, which are in a good agreement with previous geodetic studies. Interseismic strain accumulation analysis was conducted on two 14 km long segments of the Kašina Fault, seismically active in the South and stable in the North. The analysis indicates an ongoing interseismic strain accumulation of 2.3 mm/year on the Southern segment and no detectable strain accumulation on the Northern segment. Taking into consideration the lack of moderate to strong seismic activity in the past 113 years combined with the preliminary geodetic analysis from this study, we can conclude that the Southern segment of the Kašina Fault has the potential to generate earthquake magnitude M w < 6.