Extensive sheep grazing is associated with trends in steppe birds in Spain: recommendations for the Common Agricultural Policy.

Iberian natural steppes have traditionally been used for extensive sheep grazing, which has been noted to be positively associated with steppe bird abundance and diversity. Sheep numbers in Spain, which harbors the largest European populations of many steppe bird species, decreased by 9.2 million (37.3%) between 1992 and 2020. Steppe birds in Spain have faced dramatic declines during the same period, but there is a lack of knowledge about the potential association between sheep and open-habitat bird declines. We used sheep data from the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture and bird data (1998-2018) from the Spanish Common Bird Monitoring Program to assess the association at the Spanish scale between sheep decline and the Farmland Bird Index (FBI) and the Natural Shrub-steppe Bird Index (SBI). We also used an independent dataset on population trends of the Dupont's Lark ( Chersophilus duponti ) to assess the relationship between sheep numbers and the decline of this threatened steppe specialist passerine in Spain, whose European population is restricted to Iberian natural steppes. To test for a spurious relationship between temporal series, variables were tested for cointegration. After confirming cointegration, we found a strong positive relationship between sheep abundance and the trends of the FBI and SBI indices during the period 1998-2018. The association between sheep abundance and trends of the Dupont's Lark (2004-2015) was positive although it was not statistically significant. Although the main causes of decline of farmland and steppe birds are mainly related to agricultural intensification and land use changes, the correlation found, using two independent cointegrated datasets, between the reduction in farmland and shrub-steppe birds and sheep numbers at the country scale suggests that the decline of steppe birds in Spain may be also associated with the decline in sheep numbers. This agrees with previous studies that found a positive relationship between intermediate levels of sheep grazing and steppe bird abundance in Iberian steppes. Further research ( e.g . experimental studies) is needed to corroborate our study and identify the most appropriate level of grazing intensity for protecting the most farmland and shrub-steppe birds. Our results suggest that the promotion of extensive grazing should be considered as a key factor in future Common Agricultural Policy reforms and conservation programmes to protect steppe birds.