Ewe Wastage in New Zealand Commercial Flocks: Extent, Timing, Association with Hogget Reproductive Outcomes and BCS.

Ewe wastage is the combination of on-farm mortality and premature culling. Internationally, there is limited research on actual wastage incidence and causes in commercial sheep flocks. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that reports both lifetime wastage and detailed annual wastage in a sample of commercial New Zealand flocks. This study utilized data collected from 13,142 ewes from four cohorts on three commercial New Zealand farms (Farm A 2010-born, Farm A 2011-born, Farm B, Farm C), during the period 2011-2017, as they aged from replacement hoggets to 6-year-old ewes (Farm A and Farm B) or 3-year-old ewes (Farm C). Data collection visits occurred at three or four key management times each year, namely pre-mating, pregnancy diagnosis, pre-lambing and weaning. At each visit, body condition score (BCS) was assessed and any ewes that were culled or had died on farm were recorded. As this was a lifetime study, each ewe was assigned an outcome and corresponding 'exit age'. By the end of the study, all ewes that had exited their respective flocks, were classified as either prematurely culled, or dead/missing, or if still in the flock, as censored, and either the exact date or interval in which they exited the flock was recorded. Semi-parametric competing risk (premature culling vs. dead/missing), interval-censored survival models were developed to: 1. describe the association between hogget reproductive outcomes and risk of subsequent wastage, and 2. assess pre-mating BCS as a predictor of wastage in that production year. Of the 13,142 enrolled ewes, 50.4% exited their respective flocks due to premature culling and 40.0% due to on-farm dead/missing, giving a total of 90.4% that exited due to wastage. Annual mortality incidence ranged from 3.5 to 40.2%. As a hogget, wastage incidence ranged from 7.6 to 45.4%. Pregnancy or rearing a lamb as a hogget did not increase risk of subsequent wastage. In all years, pre-mating BCS was a predictor of ewe wastage, with odds of wastage lower with increasing BCS. Therefore, farmers should focus on improving pre-mating BCS to 3.5/5.0 by assessing ewe BCS at weaning, allowing poorer-BCS ewes to be managed to gain BCS before re-breeding.