Drought affects the performance of native oak seedlings more strongly than competition with invasive crested wattle seedlings.

Two of the most important processes threatening vulnerable plant species are competitive displacement by invasive alien species and water stress due to global warming. Quercus lusitanica, an oak shrub species with remarkable conservation interest, could be threatened by the expansion of the invasive alien tree Paraserianthes lophantha. However, it is unclear how competition would interact with predicted reductions in water availability due to global climate change. We set up a full factorial experiment to examine the direct interspecific competition between P. lophantha and Q. lusitanica seedlings under control and water-limited conditions. We measured seed biomass, germination, seedling emergence, leaf relative growth rate, biomass, root/shoot ratio, predawn shoot water potential and mortality to assess the individual and combined effects of water stress and interspecific competition on both species. Our results indicate that, at seedling stage, both species experience competitive effects and responses. However, water stress exhibited a stronger overall effect than competition. Although both species responded strongly to water stress, the invasive P. lophantha exhibited significantly less drought stress than the native Q. lusitanica based on predawn shoot water potential measurements. The findings of this study suggest that the competition with invasive P. lophantha in the short term must not be dismissed, but that the long-term conservation of the native shrub Q. lusitanica could be compromised by increased drought as a result of global change. Our work sheds light on the combined effects of biological invasions and climate change that can negatively affect vulnerable plant species.