[Estimation of cancer incidence in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, based on real data].

This study aims to evaluate the feasibility of applying a method of estimating the incidence of cancer to regions of the state of São Paulo, Brazil, from real data (not estimated) and retrospectively comparing the results obtained with the official estimates. A method based on mortality and on the incidence to mortality (I/M) ration was used according to sex, age, and tumor location. In the I/M numerator, new cases of cancer were used from the population records of Jaú and São Paulo from 2006-2010; in the denominator, deaths from 2006-2010 in the respective areas, extracted from the national mortality system. The estimates resulted from the multiplication of I/M by the number of cancer deaths in 2010 for each region. Population data from the 2010 Demographic Census were used to estimate incidence rates. For the adjustment by age, the world standard population was used. We calculated the relative differences between the gross incidence rates estimated in this study and the official ones. Age-adjusted cancer incidence rates were 260.9/100,000 for men and 216.6/100,000 for women. Prostate cancer was the most common in males, whereas breast cancer was most common in females. Differences between the rates of this study and the official rates were 3.3% and 1.5% for each sex. The estimated incidence was compatible with the officially presented state profile, indicating that the application of real data did not alter the morbidity profile, while it did indicate different risk magnitudes. Despite the over-representativeness of the cancer registry with greater population coverage, the selected method proved feasible to point out different patterns within the state.