Forest carbon removal potential and sustainable development in Japan.

Forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change and reducing emissions as a major carbon sink. However, its value in removing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere is always underestimated in natural capital (NC) accounting and sustainability assessments. This study predicted Japan's forest CO 2 removal by afforestation and forest management and its monetary value until 2042 from national to gridded level, with statistical data and complementary satellite data products, and explored how that CO 2 removal will contribute to sustainable development under the inclusive wealth (IW) framework. The results show that: (1) the annual CO 2 removal by forests has the potential to offset 15.3% of the emission and increase NC by 6.8% in Japan, significantly contributing to carbon neutrality and IW growth; (2) the total CO 2 removal in exiting forests will peak at around 2030 and then decrease, but expanding afforestation could offset that decrease in later years; (3) the spatial distribution patterns of IW and forest CO 2 removal are opposite. This indicates a national carbon trading market could create new wealth for rural communities where vast forests exist, and then effectively balance the inequal urban-rural development in Japan. The explicit spatial information of this study could provide valuable information for differentiating policy priorities of forestry planning and sustainable development in different local communities.