Discrete simulation analysis of COVID-19 and prediction of isolation bed numbers.

Through simulation, we show that the incubation period, response speed and detection capacity of the hospital, disease healing time, degree of population mobility, and infectivity of cured patients have different effects on the infectivity, scale, and duration of the epidemic. Among them, (1) incubation period, (2) response speed and detection capacity of the hospital, (3) disease healing time, and (4) population mobility have a significant impact on the demand and number of isolation beds (P <0.05), which agrees with the following regression equation: N = P × (-0.273 + 0.009I + 0.234M + 0.012T1 + 0.015T2) × (1 + V).