Perinatal health in Spain during and after the Great Recession: Educational selection into fertility as a protective factor in high unemployment contexts.

Higher maternal resources have long been associated with superior birth outcomes. This study analyzes the potentially protective role of maternal educational selection into fertility in adverse macroeconomic contexts. We focus on the case of Spain, a country reaching record-high unemployment levels during the Great Recession starting in 2008. First, we examine whether selection into fertility of more educated mothers took place as province-level unemployment rates rose. Secondly, we assess whether maternal education mitigated the impact of higher unemployment levels on different birth outcomes. The analysis combines register data on the universe of live births with aggregate data on province-level unemployment. We cover the period 2007-2019 to ensure sufficient variability of unemployment rates and perform linear regression and linear probability models with fixed effects to hold constant unobserved heterogeneity across provinces. Findings indicate selection into fertility of mothers with university-level education in times of high unemployment. In addition, while unemployment rates did show an adverse impact on certain birth outcomes -birthweight, the occurrence of low and very low birthweight, and the risk of stillbirth - maternal education mitigated the observed relations. It was itself, moreover, consistently and independently associated with better perinatal health. We thus conclude that fertility selectivity by maternal education cushioned the impact of the adverse economic context derived from the Great Recession through two separate pathways.