A predictive model for identifying patients at risk of delayed transfer of care: a retrospective, cross-sectional study of routinely collected data.

Several demographic, socio-economic and clinical factors were found to be significantly associated with whether a patient experiences a DTOC or not following an admission via the ED. An eight-variable model has been proposed, which is capable of identifying patients who experience delayed transfers of care with 70% accuracy. The eight-variable predictive tool calculates the probability of a patient experiencing a delayed transfer accurately at the time of admission.