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Temperature-related mortality in China from specific injury.

Jianxiong HuGuanhao HeRuilin MengWeiwei GongZhoupeng RenHeng ShiZiqiang LinTao LiuFang Fang ZengPeng YinGuoxia BaiMingfang QinZhulin HouXiaomei DongChunliang ZhouZhuoma PingcuoYize XiaoMin YuBiao HuangXiaojun XuLifeng LinJianpeng XiaoJieming ZhongDonghui JinQinglong ZhaoYajie LiCangjue GamaYiqing XuLingshuang LvWeilin ZengXing LiLiying LuoMaigeng ZhouCunrui HuangWenjun Ma
Published in: Nature communications (2023)
Injury poses heavy burden on public health, accounting for nearly 8% of all deaths globally, but little evidence on the role of climate change on injury exists. We collect data during 2013-2019 in six provinces of China to examine the effects of temperature on injury mortality, and to project future mortality burden attributable to temperature change driven by climate change based on the assumption of constant injury mortality and population scenario. The results show that a 0.50% (95% confident interval (CI): 0.13%-0.88%) increase of injury mortality risk for each 1 °C rise in daily temperature, with higher risk for intentional injury (1.13%, 0.55%-1.71%) than that for unintentional injury (0.40%, 0.04%-0.77%). Compared to the 2010s, total injury deaths attributable to temperature change in China would increase 156,586 (37,654-272,316) in the 2090 s under representative concentration pathways 8.5 scenario with the highest for transport injury (64,764, 8,517-115,743). Populations living in Western China, people aged 15-69 years, and male may suffer more injury mortality burden from increased temperature caused by climate change. Our findings may be informative for public health policy development to effectively adapt to climate change.
Keyphrases
  • climate change
  • public health
  • cardiovascular events
  • healthcare
  • type diabetes
  • mental health
  • coronary artery disease
  • risk assessment
  • quality improvement
  • data analysis
  • current status
  • genetic diversity