Feedback between stochastic gene networks and population dynamics enables cellular decision-making.

Phenotypic selection occurs when genetically identical cells are subject to different reproductive abilities due to cellular noise. Such noise arises from fluctuations in reactions synthesizing proteins and plays a crucial role in how cells make decisions and respond to stress or drugs. We propose a general stochastic agent-based model for growing populations capturing the feedback between gene expression and cell division dynamics. We devise a finite state projection approach to analyze gene expression and division distributions and infer selection from single-cell data in mother machines and lineage trees. We use the theory to quantify selection in multi-stable gene expression networks and elucidate that the trade-off between phenotypic switching and selection enables robust decision-making essential for synthetic circuits and developmental lineage decisions. Using live-cell data, we demonstrate that combining theory and inference provides quantitative insights into bet-hedging-like response to DNA damage and adaptation during antibiotic exposure in Escherichia coli .