Preparing for invasion: Assessing risk of infection by chytrid fungi in southeastern plethodontid salamanders.

Understanding the responses of naïve communities to the invasion of multihost pathogens requires accurate estimates of susceptibility across taxa. In the Americas, the likely emergence of a second amphibian pathogenic fungus (Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans, Bsal) calls for new ways of prioritizing disease mitigation among species due to the high diversity of naïve hosts with prior B. dendrobatidis (Bd) infections. Here, we applied the concept of pathogenic potential to quantify the virulence of chytrid fungi on naïve amphibians and evaluate species for conservation efforts in the event of an outbreak. The benefit of this measure is that it combines and summarizes the variation in disease effects into a single numerical index, allowing for comparisons across species, populations or groups of individuals that may inherently exhibit differences in susceptibility. As a proof of concept, we obtained standardized responses of disease severity by performing experimental infections with Bsal on five plethodontid salamanders from southeastern United States. Four out of five species carried natural infections of Bd at the start of the experiments. We showed that Bsal exhibited its highest value of pathogenic potential in a species that is already declining (Desmognathus auriculatus). We find that this index provides additional information beyond the standard measures of disease prevalence, intensity, and mortality, because it leveraged these disease parameters within each categorical group. Scientists and practitioners could use this measure to justify research, funding, trade, or conservation measures.