[Impact of calendar effect on morbidity and mortality from external causes in tourist towns in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, from 2004 to 2014].

This study aims to analyze the association between temporal variations in injuries and deaths from external causes and periods of greater flow of visitors in tourist municipalities (counties) on the coastline of the state of São Paulo, Brazil, from 2004 to 2014. This is an ecological study of daily and monthly time series based on data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM) and Brazilian Hospital Information System of the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SIH/SUS) from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2014, using as the analytical units the four municipalities on the northern coast of the State of São Paulo. Negative binomial regression models were adjusted for the outcome that represented the number of hospital admissions and/or deaths from external causes, with calendar variables as predictors (days of the week, holidays, month, and year of occurrence). The Brazilian holidays New Year's Day, Carnival, Tiradentes, and Proclamation of the Republic stood out with mean numbers greater than or equal to 5 outcomes per day. Among the days of the week, Monday and Sunday had the highest mean numbers. Considering all the predictors, there was a higher tendency to the occurrence of outcomes on Monday (OR = 1.11; 95%CI: 1.05-1.18), New Year's Day (OR = 1.44; 95%CI: 1.19-1.74), and Proclamation of the Republic Day (OR = 1.49; 95%CI: 1.13-1.94) and in the months of January (OR = 1.11; 95%CI: 1.02-1.20) and February (OR = 1.13; 95%CI: 1.04-1.23). Morbidity and mortality from external causes in these tourist towns were higher in the period with the greatest flow of tourists, emphasizing the need to organize care for these injuries, alongside measures for prevention and health promotion targeted to this group of causes.