How economic weights translate into genetic and phenotypic progress, and vice versa.

Based on the presented results, the main conclusions are (i) the composition of the observed genetic progress matches the expectations well, with predictions being slightly better when the covariance of estimation errors is taken into account; (ii) the composition of the expected phenotypic trend deviates significantly from the expected genetic trend due to the differences in trait heritabilities; and (iii) the realized economic weights derived from the observed genetic trend deviate substantially from the predefined ones, in one case even with a reversed sign. Further results highlight the implications of the change to a modified breeding goal based on the example of a new index comprising eight, partly new, trait complexes, which is used since 2021 in the German Holstein breeding program. The proposed framework and the analytical tools and software provided will be useful to define more rational and generally accepted breeding objectives in the future.