Prediction of type 1 diabetes using a genetic risk model in the Diabetes Autoimmunity Study in the Young.

Stratification by risk score significantly predicted progression to diabetes by Kaplan-Meier analysis (GP: P = .00006; FDR: P = .0022). The 10-factor model performed better in discriminating diabetes outcome than HLA alone (GP, P = .03; FDR, P = .01). In GP, the restricted 3-factor model was superior to HLA (P = .03), but not different from the 10-factor model (P = .22). In contrast, for FDR the 3-factor model did not show improvement over HLA (P = .12) and performed worse than the 10-factor model (P = .02) CONCLUSIONS: We have shown a 10-factor risk model predicts development of diabetes in both GP and FDR children. While this model was superior to a minimal model in FDR, it did not confer improvement in GP. Differences in model performance in FDR vs GP children may lead to important insights into screening strategies specific to these groups.