Vivifying Outbreaks: Investigating the Influence of a Forecast Visual on Risk Perceptions, Time-Urgency, and Behavioral Intentions.

Although visual depictions of epidemiological data are not new in public health, the US public saw more of them during the COVID-19 pandemic than ever before. In this study, we considered visualizations of forecasts (i.e. predictions of how a disaster will unfold over time) formatted as line charts. We investigated how two choices scientists make when creating a forecast visual - the outcome of focus (cases or deaths) and the amount of data provided (more or less data) about the past or the potential future - shape behavioral intentions via risk-related appraisals (e.g. threat and efficacy). In an online experiment, participants ( N  = 236) viewed a written health alert about a novel airborne virus, with one of the eight versions of a forecast visual or no visual (text only). The results of the experiment showed that exposing people to a health alert with a forecast visual in it may be less effective than anticipated. Reading a written health alert with a forecast visual was, at best, equal to outcomes from reading an alert without it, and sometimes it performed worse: participants appraised the novel virus as a less urgent threat and the recommended solutions as less efficacious. Implications of the findings for theories of risk and visual health communication and practical considerations for future health communicators were discussed.