On the impact of sample size on median lethal concentration estimation in acute fish toxicity testing: Is n = 7/group enough?

The fish acute toxicity test method is foundational to aquatic toxicity testing strategies, yet the literature lacks a concise sample size assessment. Although various sources address sample size, historical precedent seems to play a larger role than objective measures. We present a novel and comprehensive quantification of the effect of sample size on estimation of the median lethal concentration (LC50), covering a wide range of scenarios. The results put into perspective the practical differences across a range of sample sizes, from n = 5/concentration up to n = 23/concentration. We also provide a framework for setting sample size guidance illustrating ways to quantify the performance of LC50 estimation, which can be used to set sample size guidance given reasonably difficult (or worst-case) scenarios. There is a clear benefit to larger sample size studies: they reduce error in the determination of LC50s, and lead to more robust safe environmental concentration determinations, particularly in cases likely to be called worst-case (shallow slope and true LC50 near the edges of the concentration range). Given that the use of well-justified sample sizes is crucial to reducing uncertainty in toxicity estimates, these results lead us to recommend a reconsideration of the current de minimis 7/concentration sample size for critical studies (e.g., studies needed for a chemical registration, which are being tested for the first time, or involving difficult test substances). Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:1565-1578. © 2018 SETAC.