The potential effects of autonomous vehicles on walking.

Vehicle automation is progressing rapidly and autonomous vehicles (AVs) are forecast to become a central feature of transportation systems globally. This development has the potential to result in profound changes in walking behaviors. The present study examined this issue from the perspective of relevant experts for the purpose of informing health policy. Interviews were conducted with 44 key stakeholders in Australia (n = 34), the European Union (n = 5), the UK (n = 4), and the US (n = 1). The stakeholders represented a wide range of sectors including government, AV manufacturing/servicing companies, transport policy consortiums, technology firms, insurers (public and private), trade unions, consumer representation organizations, and academia. Two potential scenarios were evident in interviewees' discussions of the ways AVs are likely to be introduced and the implications for walking behaviors. The most beneficial scenario, but the least likely to eventuate, was considered to be the situation where people relinquish private vehicle ownership and rely on a combination of walking, public transport, and on-demand transport. The alternative scenario involved greater private AV ownership, traffic congestion, and urban sprawl, resulting in less walking activity. The convergence of the stakeholders' views around the opposing identified scenarios highlights the need for proactive policy development to ensure the emerging transport transformation does not result in substantial increases in sedentarism.