Stochastic modelling of scalar time series of varicella incidence for a period of 92 years (1928-2019).
Ralitsa D RaychevaAni KevorkyanYordanka StoilovaPublished in: Folia medica (2022)
The ARIMA model (0,1,1) in our study is an adequate tool for presenting the varicella incidence trend and is suitable to forecast near future disease dynamics with acceptable error tolerance.