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Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.

Alice BoitBoris SakschewskiLena BoysenAna Cano-CrespoJan ClementNashieli Garcia-AlanizKasper KokMelanie KolbFanny LangerwischAnja RammigRené SachseMichiel van EupenWerner von BlohDelphine Clara ZempKirsten Thonicke
Published in: Global change biology (2016)
Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.
Keyphrases
  • climate change
  • human health
  • current status
  • magnetic resonance imaging
  • computed tomography
  • risk assessment