Drivers of the artiodactyl turnover in insular western Europe at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition.

Simultaneously investigating the effects of abiotic and biotic factors on diversity dynamics is essential to understand the evolutionary history of clades. The Grande Coupure corresponds to a major faunal turnover at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) (~34.1 to 33.55 Mya) and is defined in western Europe as an extinction of insular European mammals coupled with the arrival of crown clades from Asia. Here, we focused on the species-rich group of endemic European artiodactyls to determine the drivers of the Grande Coupure during the major environmental disruptions at the EOT. Using Bayesian birth-death models, we analyzed an original high-resolution fossil dataset (90 species, >2,100 occurrences) from southwestern France (Quercy area) and estimated the regional diversification and diversity dynamics of endemic and immigrant artiodactyls. We show that the endemic artiodactyl radiation was mainly related to the Eocene tropical conditions, combined with biotic controls on speciation and clade-related diversity dependence. We further highlight that the major environmental changes at the transition (77% of species became extinct) and the concurrent increase in seasonality in Europe during the Oligocene were likely the main drivers of their decline. Surprisingly, our results do not support the widely-held hypothesis of active competition between endemic and immigrant artiodactyls but rather suggest a passive or opportunistic replacement by immigrants, which is further supported by morphological clustering of specific ecological traits across the Eocene-Oligocene transition. Our analyses provide insights into the evolutionary and ecological processes driving the diversification and decline of mammalian clades during a major biological and climatic crisis.