Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City, China, January-February, 2020.

We have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, during January-February 2020 using an ecological modeling approach that is suitable to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems. Our estimate of time-delay adjusted IFR falls in the range of the median IFR estimates based on multiple serological studies conducted in several areas of the world.