Epidemic dynamics in census-calibrated modular contact network.
Kirti JainVasudha BhatnagarSharanjit KaurPublished in: Network modeling and analysis in health informatics and bioinformatics (2023)
Network-based models are apt for understanding epidemic dynamics due to their inherent ability to model the heterogeneity of interactions in the contemporary world of intense human connectivity. We propose a framework to create a wire-frame that mimics the social contact network of the population in a geography by lacing it with demographic information. The framework results in a modular network with small-world topology that accommodates density variations and emulates human interactions in family, social, and work spaces. When loaded with suitable economic, social, and urban data shaping patterns of human connectance, the network emerges as a potent decision-making instrument for urban planners, demographers, and social scientists. We employ synthetic networks to experiment in a controlled environment and study the impact of zoning, density variations, and population mobility on the epidemic variables using a variant of the SEIR model. Our results reveal that these demographic factors have a characteristic influence on social contact patterns, manifesting as distinct epidemic dynamics. Subsequently, we present a real-world COVID-19 case study for three Indian states by creating corresponding surrogate social contact networks using available census data. The case study validates that the demography-laced modular contact network reduces errors in the estimates of epidemic variables.
Keyphrases
- healthcare
- mental health
- endothelial cells
- decision making
- induced pluripotent stem cells
- coronavirus disease
- sars cov
- drug delivery
- electronic health record
- dna methylation
- functional connectivity
- network analysis
- genome wide
- patient safety
- machine learning
- white matter
- artificial intelligence
- social media
- quality improvement
- respiratory syndrome coronavirus
- drug induced
- adverse drug