Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of the Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease Morbidity in China Using An Advanced Exponential Smoothing State Space TBATS Model.

The TBATS model has the capacity to outperform the most frequently used SARIMA model in forecasting the HFMD incidence in China, and it can be recommended as a flexible and useful tool in the decision-making process of HFMD prevention and control in China.