Augmenting Expert Knowledge-Based Toxicity Alerts by Statistically Mined Molecular Fragments.

Structural alerts are molecular substructures assumed to be associated with molecular initiating events in various toxic effects and an integral part of in silico toxicology. However, alerts derived using the knowledge of human experts often suffer from a lack of predictivity, specificity, and satisfactory coverage. In this work, we present a method to build hybrid QSAR models by combining expert knowledge-based alerts and statistically mined molecular fragments. Our objective was to find out if the combination is better than the individual systems. Lasso regularization-based variable selection was applied on combined sets of knowledge-based alerts and molecular fragments, but the variable elimination was only allowed to happen on the molecular fragments. We tested the concept on three toxicity end points, i.e., skin sensitization, acute Daphnia toxicity, and Ames mutagenicity, which covered both classification and regression problems. Results showed the predictive performance of such hybrid models is, indeed, better than the models based solely on expert alerts or statistically mined fragments alone. The method also enables the discovery of activating and mitigating/deactivating features for toxicity alerts and the identification of new alerts, thereby reducing false positive and false negative outcomes commonly associated with generic alerts and alerts with poor coverage, respectively.