The statistical mechanics of felt uncertainty under active inference.

Convincing narratives are not confabulations. Presumably they "feel right" to decision-making agents because the probabilities they assign intuitively (i.e., implicitly) to potential outcomes are plausible. Can we render explicit the calculations that would be performed by a decision-making agent to evaluate the plausibility of competing narratives? And if we can, what, exactly, makes a narrative "feel right" to an agent?