Imminent death: clinician certainty and accuracy of prognostic predictions.
Nicola WhiteFiona ReidVictoria VickerstaffPriscilla HarriesChristopher TomlinsonPatrick Charles StonePublished in: BMJ supportive & palliative care (2019)
When doctors assign a very high (≥90%) or very low (≤10%) probability of imminent death, their prognostic accuracy is improved; however, this increases the number of 'indeterminate' cases. This suggests that clinical predictions may continue to have a role for routine prognostication but that other approaches (such as the use of prognostic scores) may be required for those cases where doctors' estimates are indeterminate.